Polls hint at Clinton surge
Added 649 days ago on May 1st, 2008
A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina - which hold key primaries on Tuesday - suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton's unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama's, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.In a national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, Obama's lead has narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings have also risen. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively, but in the new poll 46 percent view him favorably, but 37 percent negatively.In a national New York Times/CBS poll, Obama leads 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain's 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.
Source: boston.com
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Things seem to be changing lately
www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2220
If she wins,... Beating Obama on his 'home turf' would be a mighty victory. Last state with a sizable black minority. Losing NC would be a catastrophy for Obama.
Indiana is close. Since he has more money, since he broadcasts more ads and since he has the bigger organisation, most people expect him to win that state. Nevertheless, the demographics favor her, so she has a good shot at winning the state.
If Clinton wins both, well,... then Obama can start asking Deval Patrick to write a concession speech. NC was supposed by Camp Obama as the place where he would regain the 200.000 voters that she won in Pennsylvania. If she wins both, her advantage in the popular vote increases, the gap in delegates will be reduced and with lots of momentum, she will sail into West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.
If she wins both states next Tuesday, even Montana and South Dakota and Oregon will be back in play.