The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates images.huffingt...
The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates
Added 853 days ago on May 3rd, 2008
On April 23, Hillary Clinton, with a net gain of 214,000 Pennsylvania votes in her back pocket, set off an election firestorm by claiming she had slipped ahead of Barack Obama in the popular vote total.
"I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else," she told a rally in Indianapolis.
Journalists immediately fact-checked the statement, pointing out that Clinton's math relies on counting votes from Florida and Michigan. (Of course, the DNC has stripped those states of their delegates for scheduling their primaries before the party's calendar allowed, and both Clinton and Obama had agreed to not campaign in either state. Furthermore, in Michigan, Obama asked that his name be removed from the ballot, which naturally kept him from earning a single vote.) Even The New York Times, in a headline, gently called Clinton's claim "New Math."
But whether or not Florida and/or Michigan should be counted is only the most obvious pitfall in determining who's actually winning the popular vote. News audiences-and superdelegates-want to know the popular vote, a simple number that in almost any other election cuts through the intermediation and let's you know who's winning. Is that too much to ask?
Well, maybe. The Democratic party's nominating process is a kaleidoscope of caucuses, conventions, and primaries, sometimes all in the same state. And there's no obvious best way to estimate a popular vote from it all.


Added by: rfuller
Votes: 181
Ratings: 5
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Poll
How should the remaining 300 delegates qualify their vote?
Based on Who Can Win against McCain
56%
Based on Super Delegate lead
0.6%
Based on Pledged Delegates lead
21%
Based on Popular Vote lead
10%
Based on there on Judgement & Conscience
12%
Closed on June 2nd, 2008
This is not a scientific survey, click here to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding and voting descrepencies.
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Posted by: bish66
8:50am, May 3rd, 2008
Re: The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates
Last time I checked, McCain was the Republican candidate and the Democrats wanted to win against him. Super delegates, pledged delegates, popular vote, all of them are factors to be consisdered, but the ultimate question is: "Who can win the Presidency?"

Clinton has a large number of important voting groups behind her, including small town voters and rural areas. Obama's strength lies in the urban centers and in the black community. Unfortunately, the black community can't even deliver the states with the largest black voting blocks. You need a good mixture of all groups, Hispanics, Jews, Catholics, older people, young voters, rural folks, gun owners, single moms, whatever.

Clinton does that and she will easily beat McCain. Obama seems to be stuck in his basic groups, groups that vote Democratic anyways. Polls are in her favor and since middle of April, she beats McCain in matchups easily, while Obama struggles.

Currently, she is the one best prepared to tackle McCain.
Posted by: Charles43
9:46am, May 3rd, 2008
Re: The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates
Bish66 - I fully disagree with your assumption that a popular vote should be part of the election process within the democrat party. If you remember in the 2000 election, the former VP Gore had the popular vote BUT LOST the election. Also, the question pertaining to the five selection noted: "How should the remaining 300 delegates qualify there vote?" First of all the DNC needs to determine its candidate to go up against the GOP candidate. Is - ducking sniper fire, evading trueful answers on all aspects that affect us present and future, and on a ego trip - Senator Clinton the right individual to tackle the countrys' concerns or is it (Let them say what they want to hear and once I get elected, it will be business as usual?). In the case for Senator Obama defense, the guy tells it like it is and is straight to the point. To - and this is my opinion - he can bring the needed change to put this country back on its proper footing. Last, each of the Democrat candidates are expression that the party WILL remain WHOLE no matter how is chosen - I disagree!
Posted by: joniross
11:20am, May 3rd, 2008
Re: The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates
Back Obama is the most electable and popular candidate. He should win the nomination
Posted by: bish66
2:37pm, May 3rd, 2008
Re: The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates
Charles43, the remaining delegates and the delegates that already chose a candidate will have to take a number of points into account. One will be the popular vote, one will be the number of pledged delegates, one will be the super delegates or where the delegates come from, where the candidate is strong.

Obama won his lead by winning red states. That's nice and in accordance with the 50-states-strategy of Howard Dean, but in the end, it is delusional to expect wining states such as Alabama or Idaho or Wyoming or Kansas without cheating.

Who wins the blue states and who can win the election must be the most important factor for the choice of the Super delegates.

You point out that Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and lost the election. True, but that proves my arguement for Mrs. Clinton. Obama will be a strong second place finisher in red states and by strong I mean losing with 5-10% where Clinton would loose 15-20%.
He might even win the blue states with larger margins and by doing so he will win the popular vote hands-down.

Clinton on the other hand will win the swing states with small margins, will lose the red states with large margins and will carry the blue states, some with large margins, some with small ones. But ultimately, she will win the electoral college. Just have a look at www.electoral-vote.com for matchups McCain-Democrats to see who would win the election.

Obama does not tell it like it is, as you claim. He talks lots, but says little.
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