The Inestimable Popular Vote Estimates
Added 853 days ago on May 3rd, 2008
On April 23, Hillary Clinton, with a net gain of 214,000 Pennsylvania votes in her back pocket, set off an election firestorm by claiming she had slipped ahead of Barack Obama in the popular vote total."I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else," she told a rally in Indianapolis.Journalists immediately fact-checked the statement, pointing out that Clinton's math relies on counting votes from Florida and Michigan. (Of course, the DNC has stripped those states of their delegates for scheduling their primaries before the party's calendar allowed, and both Clinton and Obama had agreed to not campaign in either state. Furthermore, in Michigan, Obama asked that his name be removed from the ballot, which naturally kept him from earning a single vote.) Even The New York Times, in a headline, gently called Clinton's claim "New Math."But whether or not Florida and/or Michigan should be counted is only the most obvious pitfall in determining who's actually winning the popular vote. News audiences-and superdelegates-want to know the popular vote, a simple number that in almost any other election cuts through the intermediation and let's you know who's winning. Is that too much to ask?Well, maybe. The Democratic party's nominating process is a kaleidoscope of caucuses, conventions, and primaries, sometimes all in the same state. And there's no obvious best way to estimate a popular vote from it all.
Source: cjr.org
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Clinton has a large number of important voting groups behind her, including small town voters and rural areas. Obama's strength lies in the urban centers and in the black community. Unfortunately, the black community can't even deliver the states with the largest black voting blocks. You need a good mixture of all groups, Hispanics, Jews, Catholics, older people, young voters, rural folks, gun owners, single moms, whatever.
Clinton does that and she will easily beat McCain. Obama seems to be stuck in his basic groups, groups that vote Democratic anyways. Polls are in her favor and since middle of April, she beats McCain in matchups easily, while Obama struggles.
Currently, she is the one best prepared to tackle McCain.
Obama won his lead by winning red states. That's nice and in accordance with the 50-states-strategy of Howard Dean, but in the end, it is delusional to expect wining states such as Alabama or Idaho or Wyoming or Kansas without cheating.
Who wins the blue states and who can win the election must be the most important factor for the choice of the Super delegates.
You point out that Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and lost the election. True, but that proves my arguement for Mrs. Clinton. Obama will be a strong second place finisher in red states and by strong I mean losing with 5-10% where Clinton would loose 15-20%.
He might even win the blue states with larger margins and by doing so he will win the popular vote hands-down.
Clinton on the other hand will win the swing states with small margins, will lose the red states with large margins and will carry the blue states, some with large margins, some with small ones. But ultimately, she will win the electoral college. Just have a look at www.electoral-vote.com for matchups McCain-Democrats to see who would win the election.
Obama does not tell it like it is, as you claim. He talks lots, but says little.