Note to Sen. Obama: Wake up and smell the change in Florida
Added 839 days ago on May 17th, 2008
Memo to: Sen. Barack ObamaRe: Blowing off 27 electoral votesThanks for coming by next week for a three-day campaign swing, Senator.There has been lots of chatter about you ceding Florida to Sen. John McCain, given the way you've ignored the state for eight months and dismissed the 1.75-million Democrats who voted in our disputed Democratic primary. We're trying not to take it personally when you keep talking about the old electoral map - i.e., Pennsylvania, Ohio and US! - being so 2000/2004.But here's something you and your advisers might be missing: Florida is turning bluer by the day.The trend is easy to miss when you see the popularity of our Republican governor, Charlie Crist. Add John Kerry's five-point loss here in 2004 and Jeb Bush's 2002 landslide re-election despite being the Democratic National Committee's top target, and nobody could blame you for thinking Florida is solidly Republican red.Take a closer look, though, because the latest voter registration statistics show Florida's political landscape is shifting dramatically:"This is a unique cycle for Florida. The competitive environment is like nothing we've ever seen, and it's up and down the ballot," Democratic strategist Steve Schale said. "Barack Obama's road map to the presidency ends right here."
Source: tampabay.com
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Clinton would win the state against McCain, just as she would win Arkansas or Ohio or West Virginia against McCain. The ability to win the important swing states (and to pick up surprises) make her the better candidate.
The sad thing is that back in January, the party looked to be winning without any trouble. Now we have a presumptive candidate who decided to stop campaigning and to do without Florida and Michigan and West Virginia and maybe Kentucky.
The Democrats will win both houses, but McCain will win the White House.