Race Factor, the "Bradley Effecttbn0.google.com
Added 2288 days ago in Society & Religion
theglobeandmail.com — It's called the "Bradley effect," named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley.

In 1982, polls showed the popular black Democrat nine to 22 points ahead of Republican George Deukmejian in the race for California governor. But Mr. Bradley wound up losing.

In that and several other races since, pollsters have suggested a racially charged phenomenon may be at work: To avoid the appearance of bias, a statistically significant swath of white voters hide their true intentions until they step into the voting booth, effectively tainting the polls.

Some pundits say that may explain why the polls were so wrong in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, where Hillary Clinton won a stunning come-from-behind victory over Barack Obama.

"Despite all the talk of how little race matters in this campaign, it is clear that race is still a big deal in biracial campaigns," argued David Kuo, a former policy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush. "And it has showed up for the first time in a measurable way in the 2008 presidential race."

He isn't alone in that view. The political blogosphere was abuzz yesterday with speculation about the discomforting return of the Bradley effect, which political scientists thought had vanished after a spate of polling anomalies in the 1980s and 1990s.

But anecdotal evidence seems to support the hypothesis that it has returned. A string of at least eight polls in the lead-up to the vote showed Mr. Obama with a commanding lead of anywhere from seven to 13 percentage points, well beyond the margin of error.

Posted by JBeal
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In your opinion did the race factor throw off New Hampshire polls?
Yes
28%
No
72%
This is not a scientific survey, click here to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding and voting descrepencies.
User Comments
Posted 2288 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
I see the opposite, Obama has truly defied the race issues. As a matter of fact he got the exact percentage of the vote that polls showed and that was 37%.
Posted 2287 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
Idiots think the polls are straight up and the electronic votes are not hacked.Even though the hand counted votes show a completely differant trend.Why is that sheople?
Posted 2287 days ago
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