The Democratic Race Moving Forwardrealclearpolitics...
Made popular 2258 days ago in Politics
realclearpolitics.com — What can we expect to happen in the future? It is difficult to say. We can make a few modest statements if we assume that what has generally been true in past past cycles hold true this cycle. Namely, let us assume that momentum does not develop, and that both candidates face a hard slog through the sixteen remaining contests. Can we use what we know to examine the remaining states? We can.

The following chart reviews the remaining sixteen states according to several of the variables we outlined yesterday. A comparison of these rows gives reasons to think that the remaining contests will be as tight as the past ones. Note first of all that the median income of whites drops from here on out. This augurs well for Clinton, who seems to do better among "downscale" white voters - and it stands to reason that as the median income of all white residents in a state declines, so also does the median income of white Democratic voters (this is presumably why this factor was shown to be statistically significant yesterday). More good news for Clinton, though it is not represented in the above chart, is that there are just two caucus states left. Obama, however, is advantaged because the number of African Americans remains roughly constant, and the number of Hispanics and union workers declines. What is more, there are about as many "homogeneously white" states to go as have already occurred.

Examining matters from another direction yields the same basic point. Looking at the above states, we could easily envision Obama doing well in states like Hawaii, Montana, Oregon and a few other smaller ones. Clinton, for her part, should do well in states like Kentucky, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Texas and Ohio play to many of her strengths, and she should be quite competitive in Pennsylvania. Though she seems down now, and though there are reasons to favor Obama in several of the above states, Clinton has real strengths in several small states and many of the big ones.

Posted by HStern
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Is Barack Obama Inevitable?
Yes, momentum will carry him through
58%
No, race has just begun
42%
This is not a scientific survey, click here to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding and voting descrepencies.
User Comments
Posted 2258 days ago
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An interesting note, even though it mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win, people still vote for him. So the key question will people vote for the individual who has momentum or will they vote for the individual whom they believe in.
Posted 2258 days ago
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They will vote for one of the CFR tools the main stream media tells them too.Because most people are sheople that are just too dam stupid to think for themselves.Their god tals to them via the cable company :D
Posted 2248 days ago
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I think it is wrong to support a candidate for President who is affiliated with one of the most notorious racists in American history: Louis Farrakhan. He is an outrageously hateful man. My point is that I disagree with TRINITY CHURCH'S outlines and fundamental message. And I am outraged that Barack Hussein Obama supports these beliefs. Look up youtube's: "the shocking video Barack Obama does not want you to see!" Farrakhan not only hates Jews, homosexuals, etc: He said that White people are not HUMAN, and they have not EVOLVED yet. EXCUSE ME: Obama, how DARE you support these views!

Louis Farrakhan and his hatred....you did not confess that you disapprove. I want to make this very clear: Obama depends on the white vote, but I believe that most white people are not aware that he is a member of an Afro-centric, anti-American, Pro-Black, Pro-Africa separatist church. A church who has written a list of "Black Values" and a "non-negotiable commitment to Africa."

Imagine a White candidate who was joined to a church with written "White Values," and a "non-negotiable commitment to Europe"? There would be riots in the streets-and everyone would acknowledge that it is racist.

I am tired of double standards that are oppressive, and in this case, it is Oppressive to Whites and Americans and also poor Blacks to vote for Obama.

This Africa first mentality is wrong!

The President of the United States of America should be Red, White, and Blue-TRUE. I don't care if that sounds over-the-top patriotic-because I AM patriotic, and our President should be as well. Our President BETTER be patriotic-to the USA.

Are you JOKING....calling Obama a unifier? It is this exact "delusion" of Obama supporters that is so very disconcerting. Obama is not uniting thr Republicans with Democrats, I think people might be DRUNK on Obamamania, because there is no way that he can beat McCain:

Obama won't win.

He can't beat the Republicans.

He alienated the Hillary Voters.

The rest don't vote.

It's simple math now.

Obama is DIVIDING our country, not unifying it at all....look at the Democratic votes, quite often it is very split. He canNOT win, *even* with Hillary votes-the Republicans are so happy that Obama is getting ahead because they will rip him to shreds and once again reign as Republicans in the White House.

Do you honestly think that he can get Democratic Hillary votes after this male media dominated hatefest on her? This whole insane cult of personality campaign? Do you really think the Hillary voters are going to have amnesia and forget how Obama played dirty tricks:

youtube:
"Obama campaign theatrics" Are you aware that at every one of his rallies, someone faints and he pauses his speech to "save them" and be a "hero"-there is footage of this scam over and over again? BTW, he sold his rallies as "anti-war rallies" to College students (who are well-known for being liberal and against the war, but it wasn't a war rally, it was an Obama campaign.

Are you aware of the LYING fliers he has been distributing to Ohio and Texas, accusing Hillary of being responsible for NAFTA: she never called it a "boon,"-LIE, and both she and Obama weren't even in the Senate to vote for it. That's SLANDER. How stupid, and he knows this.

Also, how dare you imply that Hillary and her husband, President Bill Clinton are not worthy of praise concerning all they have done for poor people and minorities, specifically Black people.

How soon everyone forgets!!!

I see this entire thing for what it is:

It's a male dominated media orgasm for Obama. He hasn't done anything for Black people, let alone White people. He hasn't done anything!! Look up youtube: "Hillary on 35 years experience" Hillary already has a Presidential resume!

Black people want to join together and feel the love for Obama. I DO understand that. But the problem is that Hillary has done more and will do more for Black Americans than he can ever do. It isn't enough that he sits in office, that should NOT be the inspiration. He isn't prepared; he isn't ready. His concerns mainly lie in fame, and also lifting up Africa.

God Bless Africa. But I am American, and I want our President to have AMERICA on her short list, not a whole different continent.

Black people of America are AMERICAN, and they should care about their lives directly....Obama may inspire people, but everyone needs to NOT only be idealistic but realistic. This is extremely serious, and we need a President who has experience....not Obama-someone who will just WING IT.

If you owned a business, who would you hire if you were in charge of the interview....? You would look at resumes, and you would see who their affiliations are (their contacts, their referrals), and you would hire the one who would create success for your business based on their long-standing history of experience and substantive demonstrations of this life-time of experience. Would you really hire someone who said just promises?? Who simply made you feel all warm and tingly inside? "Uh, I never did anything, but I like your business, and I want to work for you, that would be nice-but I don't know a thing...so....will ya hire me? Um, No, you would say. Your business would fail.

A vote for Obama is a vote for McCain, and this has NOT been lost on the republicans: The republicans are very intimidated by Hillary. Hillary has Always and will Always have the guts to stand up to them because she is a fighter. They threw every weapon at her and she still stands! The republicans haven't even begun to load their weapons on Obama.

Voting for Obama is a disservice to Democrats because it is ensuring a Republican President.
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