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Obama's Red-State Prospects Unclear
Added 2210 days ago in
For Democrats desperate to reclaim the White House, the numbers have been tantalizing.
In winning Tuesday's primary in the key swing state of Wisconsin, Sen. Barack Obama drew support from tens of thousands of Republicans and independents. He pulled off the same feat in his landslide victory in the Virginia primary the week before, suggesting he could win the state in November. In South Carolina, he had more votes than the top two Republican contenders put together; in Kansas, his total topped the overall GOP turnout. But he has also offered a more ambitious case for himself. Clinton envisions holding on to the base of blue states and picking up one or two swing states, such as Ohio, Florida or Nevada.
All along, Obama has argued that he can redraw the political map for Democrats by turning out unprecedented numbers of young voters and African Americans, and by attracting independents and even Republicans with his message of national reconciliation. But the picture emerging of his appeal in GOP strongholds and in swing states, even as he widens his delegate lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), is more complex than his claim to broad popularity in "red state" America would have one believe.
Obama (Ill.) posted big wins over Clinton in caucuses in Plains and Mountain states such as Kansas, Nebraska and Idaho, but Republicans in those states scoff at the suggestion that victories in the small universe of Democrats there translate into strength in November. In Tennessee and Oklahoma, Obama lost by wide margins to Clinton, who lived in nearby Ar
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Who is more likely to win swing states such as Ohio, Florida, & Nevada in the general elections?
This is not a scientific survey,
to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding and voting descrepencies.
2210 days ago
All Polls that match up Clinton - McCain and Obama - McCain are statistical dead lock. I would say that if they ran these polls in swing states only, Hillary would fair better than Barack. The current method or running match up polls is inaccurate and meaningless. The National election will again be won this year by swing states.
2210 days ago
The answer is: yes, if he is actually elected, Obama stands the best chance than anyone in politics today to redraw the political map.
The answer lies in the hands of the American people, their disappointment in the partisan bickering, and in their disdain for Washington politics as usual. The answer can be found by looking at what happened during the 2006 congressional elections. Democrats won in places (red districts) they had on business winning.
Hillary and McCain have been on the national stage, fighting the same partisan fights in Washington, for a long time. As Albert Einstein said, insanity is "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". The answer to solving America's problems does not reside in Washington. Period.
That's why Hillary and McCain's argument about their decades of "Washington experience" is ringing hollow with voters. You cannot solve America's problems in Washington, using the same old tired tricks.
Americans are acutely aware of this and that is why Obama will win in swing states.
Democrats, independents and new comers believe that the only way for America's own agenda to progress is if the next president can go past Washington politics to rally voters and force politicians to sign onto his or her agenda OR run the risk of getting thrown out of office in mid-term elections. And, we all know how politicians are when it comes to losing their seats of power!
This is why Obama's ability to rally voters in blue states and red states, his ability to bring independents into his tent, and his ability to bring new voters into the national discourse is extremely critical. No one can break through the Washington gridlock, the special interests and lobbyists without the support and active participation of the American people.
That is why I said at the top of my note that the 2006 election is the harbinger to the politics "change". The voters will rise up and tell Washington "change or be changed?"
Do you remember voters chanting "throw the bums out" during the 2006 election? Do you recall democrats winning in places they had no business winning? This is the way democrats took back the house and the senate in 2006. This is the only way the next president can take back Washington!
The central question is, therefore, who will be able to effectively tab into this groundswell of disappointment and letdown that the American voters have been feeling for decades. Who is best positioned to hold this public upsurge against politicians in Washington and force them to shape up or get out?
I hate to say it, but looking at how Hillary is having a hard time connecting with democratic voters (much less independents, new comers and moderate republicans), she will simply not have any chance of creating this kind of grassroots coalition.
That is why I believe Obama, if elected President, stands the best chance to get something done for the American people. That is why I am supporting Obama for President.
The question is: will we elect him? Or, will we let a few hate peddlers destroy him as we are seeing in this blog with the many attempts at character assassination?
This is the John F. Kennedy moment of our time. Will we let it slip away or will we grab it as did our parents?
2210 days ago
I hope you're right, unfortunately this is not how it will end up being. I believe that race will play a bigger roll in the national election.
2210 days ago
I agree with you completely. That's why each of us has an obligation to reject hate politics and to be willing to say so in public. We need and must put a stop to this kind of character assassination. We have to stop prejudice dead in its tracks.
If we lose on substance, that's fair. But, to vote for an inferior candidate just because we are afraid or unwilling to stand up for our core American values of decency and fairness will be a tragedy.
This may be where the hearts and minds of a FEW ultra conservatives are, but I'm simply not willing to accept it as the American way.
I just won't do it.
I firmly believe good will triumph over evil. In the end, our common decency will come through. I truly believe that.
2208 days ago
In the last almost eight years under George W. Bush--the American people HAVE come out in rally after rally protesting the policies and lies of this Administration--but they have been shot down as being "unpatriotic". What makes you think Obama is going change this mind-set? It is not going to be as "simple" as his speeches seem to convey. The mind-set being that for anyone in this country who speaks out against the failed policies or questions our Presidents decisions--example: Dixie Chicks-the many against the war-the calling for Impeachment--the lies---that it is not right. Men and women have died for our right to question the authority--the President works for us. Mind-set--we should stand behind our President no matter what--BULL! Respect is earned-not just handed over. So I would be very interested in knowing what kind of magic some voters seem to think Obama can pull out of his hat-that will change this mind-set that has been around forever. I hope every day that the young men and women fighting in this stupid war--will come home now. -Pooff! Wouldn't that be great if we could do just that.
2206 days ago
Maybe the fact that the people want him, given how he has 200 more pledged delegates, (the ones allotted by primaries and caucauses) his position on the issues, his ability to inspire enourmous amounts of people, and his ability to pass bills in a bipartisan method.
2204 days ago
The people wanted George W. Bush---enough said----Obama has followed Hillarys' lead with his position on issues--Hillary has also passed bills in a bipartisan way. Obama uses other peoples words and ideas. Is this the kind of person you want to consider for President??? Inspiration??
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