Polls hint at Clinton surgecache.boston.com
Made popular 2643 days ago in Politics
boston.com — A bevy of new national polls, plus surveys in Indiana and North Carolina - which hold key primaries on Tuesday - suggest that Hillary Clinton is closing the gap since her campaign-saving victory in Pennsylvania last week, and that the controversies dogging Barack Obama are having an impact.

In a national Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll, Clinton leads Obama 44 percent to 41 percent. The Illinois senator is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of all voters, up 9 percentage points since February. Clinton's unfavorable rating is still slightly higher than Obama's, but it has dropped slightly. And by 10 percentage points, Democrats now view Clinton as likelier than Obama to beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. Democrats gave Obama a 4-point edge last month.

In a national NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, Obama's lead has narrowed to 46 percent to 43 percent, and his unfavorable ratings have also risen. In March, 51 percent of voters viewed him positively and 28 percent saw him negatively, but in the new poll 46 percent view him favorably, but 37 percent negatively.

In a national New York Times/CBS poll, Obama leads 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats, but 51 percent say they believe he will be the eventual nominee, down from 69 percent a month ago. And 48 percent of Democratic primary voters said they believe he would be the strongest candidate against McCain, down from 56 percent a month ago.

And in a Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton runs stronger than Obama in match-ups against McCain in the general election swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Clinton would get 49 percent to McCain's 41 percent in Florida, leads 48 percent to 38 percent in Ohio, and 51 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania.

Posted by HStern
3583 Votes
Who do you predict will win the North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary?
Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama
This is not a scientific survey, click here to learn more. Results may not total 100% due to rounding and voting descrepencies.
User Comments
Posted 2643 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
A poll is a snapshot. If you look at the daily tracking both Hllary and Obama go up and down. This is a down for Obama, up for Hillary day is SOME, not all polls. He will bounce back, and that is good, because he will make the best president.
Posted 2643 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
Does not seem to be a good week for him, he slipped a good bit in all polls. He has a lot to worry about if he loses North Carolina this is a state he's supposed to win big and not 5 points or so.
Posted 2643 days ago
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Here's a poll for the Indiana Primary. It started before the Wright controversy:
Things seem to be changing lately

Posted 2643 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
As we move into the "final stretch," people are taking a closer look at the candidates, realizing that their votes will really have an impact on who becomes the nominee. As people take a closer look, they see that Senator Clinton is best equipped - by knowledge, experience, and accomplishments - to handle the problems of our country and to make progress in relations around the world. So, at this point, I think that new trends in the polls become more indicative of who the strongest candidate is.
Posted 2642 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
For Clinton, this is basically a win-win situation. Obama outspends her in the usual fashion, the demographics are in his favor and he led in the polls for quite some time, so if she can keep a loss in the 5% range, she will keep most of her momentum, because he was more than 20 points ahead and less than 5% margin would look like a victory, because of his effort, money and grassroots in the state.

If she wins,... Beating Obama on his 'home turf' would be a mighty victory. Last state with a sizable black minority. Losing NC would be a catastrophy for Obama.

Indiana is close. Since he has more money, since he broadcasts more ads and since he has the bigger organisation, most people expect him to win that state. Nevertheless, the demographics favor her, so she has a good shot at winning the state.

If Clinton wins both, well,... then Obama can start asking Deval Patrick to write a concession speech. NC was supposed by Camp Obama as the place where he would regain the 200.000 voters that she won in Pennsylvania. If she wins both, her advantage in the popular vote increases, the gap in delegates will be reduced and with lots of momentum, she will sail into West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

If she wins both states next Tuesday, even Montana and South Dakota and Oregon will be back in play.
Posted 2641 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
Polls, as you all know, are difficult to interpret. However, as Obama says,"words matter." Obama's calculating, political response to Rev. Wright, while given with a smile, is designed to win over white votes. That's it!! Hillary should win Indiana. Obama will win North Carolina. The reason is clear. Blacks voting for Obama nationally is approximately 90%. Only one question remains. What are the unintended consequences?
Posted 2640 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
Obama is truly showing himself for the empty suit that he is and the Wright thing seals the deal. He doesn't care a thing about promoting anybody but himself and his ability to be elected in November is seriously questionable. If he really cares about our party he would resign. He has far too many questionable relationships and we really don't know the half of it yet. We need Hillary Clinton because we know her for all of her flaws and perfections. We can still save the nominating process and the Democratic Party, if we do the right thing in the primaries left to come. IN and NC please don't let the rest of America down. Decisive wins for Hillary in all remaining primaries will put Obama back in his rightful place- a rookie senator lacking the experience to run our country in these most troubling times. We can still do this and I know the rest of "US" are counting on you. Bring Hillary on to the rest of "US"!!! Thank you, Mary from KY.
Posted 2640 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
Go, baby, go!!! In honor of Eight Belles, the little filly who ran the race of a lifetime, let's go Hillary, let's go. We honor your commitment and service to America.
Posted 2639 days ago
0 up votes, 0 down votes
Obama is out of touch with we the mainstream of America. He needs to go back to his rookie senators job and get some experience. Rise, Hillary, rise despite the Oprah connection $$$$$$$ Wright is poison and we don't want that in our Whitehouse.
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